Middle East
The Middle East in 2040 — Scenarios: Integration, Fragmentation, or Systemic Shock
The Middle East’s future by 2040 is uncertain, shaped by demographic pressures, climate challenges, technological advancements, and a retreat of U.S. influence. Three possible scenarios emerge: gradual integration, chronic fragmentation, or systemic shock. Outcomes depend on decisions made today, leaving the region’s trajectory open to contestation and variation.
Terrorism After ISIS: Detention, Repatriation, and the Risk of a Silent Resurgence
The defeat of ISIS in 2019 ended its territorial control but did not eradicate its ideology. In 2026, terrorism linked to ISIS persists, fueled by detention camps, unresolved legal statuses, and radicalization risks. The future requires effective governance, repatriation, and rehabilitation strategies to prevent the resurgence of extremism.
Energy Security and Maritime Chokepoints: Why Geography Still Rules the Middle East
Introduction: The Myth of a Post-Geography World In the era of instantaneous digital communication and globalized financial markets, it is tempting to believe that physical distance and terrain have become historical relics. However, as the world’s energy dependence continues to pivot on the narrow shipping lanes of the Middle East, the “Myth of a Post-Geography … Read more
Revolutionary Movements, Islamism, and Populism: Ideology After the Arab Spring
The Middle East’s revolutionary movements have not disappeared but evolved since the Arab Spring, adapting to new political realities and technologies. Authoritarian regimes have regained strength, yet the ideologies of Islamism, populism, and nationalism persist, influencing society. Young people express dissent differently, while social media amplifies radical narratives, keeping revolutionary energy alive.
The Gulf States and the Power of Economics: Capital, Energy, and Influence Without War
The Gulf states have transformed from oil-dependent economies into strategic investors wielding economic power as a geopolitical tool. By leveraging capital, logistics, and diplomatic relations, they seek to reshape the Middle East while balancing various international interests. This evolution underscores a strategic approach to influence that prioritizes economics over military action.
Turkey and Neo-Regional Power Politics: Ambition, Opportunism, and Strategic Limits
Turkey, aiming for strategic autonomy, seeks to enhance its role in the Middle East by reshaping its foreign policy. Utilizing military assertiveness and establishing partnerships, it strives for influence amid regional dynamics. However, economic constraints and domestic challenges threaten its ambitions, complicating its aspiration to be a pivotal power.
Israel and the New Frontiers of Proxy Warfare: Strategy, Deterrence, and Permanent Insecurity
Introduction: Power Without Peace Israel enters 2026 as the most militarily capable state in the Middle East, yet also one of the most strategically constrained. It enjoys overwhelming technological superiority, intelligence dominance, and strong alliances with Western powers. At the same time, it faces an environment of permanent insecurity, surrounded not by conventional armies but … Read more
Iran: Between Regional Power, Internal Repression, and the Nuclear Question
Introduction — Crisis on All Fronts The Islamic Republic of Iran stands at a critical crossroads, facing compounding pressures that test the resilience of its political system. After decades of simmering tension, the nation is navigating the intersection of mounting regional military pressure, recurring domestic unrest of significant scale, and a nuclear standoff that continues … Read more
Syria After the War? Reintegration, Fragmentation, and the Human Cost of a Frozen Conflict
The Syrian civil war, while perceived as over, has led to a state of chronic instability characterized by fragmented governance and ongoing humanitarian crises. The Assad regime, supported by Russia and Iran, faces economic collapse and legitimacy issues. Various foreign influences complicate Syria’s future, leaving it in a frozen conflict with dire consequences for regional stability.